Election Day 2017

I don’t have a ballot today, but these are the biggest races I’m watching.

Race Projection
Maine Question 2
Medicaid expansion
Passes.
New Jersey Governor DEM Gain. Murphy elected.
New York, NY Mayor DEM Hold. DeBlasio re-elected.
Utah Congressional District 3
Provo
GOP Hold. Curtis elected.
Virginia Governor DEM Hold. Northam elected.
Washington Senate, District 45
Kirkland, Redmond, & Sammamish
DEM Gain. Dhingra elected.

The Washington legislative seat is principally important because gaining it also gives Democrats control of the Washington Senate (and full control of the Washington state government).

I’m also going to try to keep an eye on Virginia’s lieutenant governor and attorney general races, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections, and the aggregate change in the Virginia House of Delegates, as well as any other interesting state or local results that come in.

2017 County Highpointing, and What Comes Next

MartinPyne_CountyHighPoints
My current county high point completion map.
Absent an unexpected travel opportunity, I’m done with county high points for the year. It was a fairly productive year in terms of my original goals, but there were still plenty of lessons to learn.

My big push for this year was to get most of the Lake Tahoe-area high points, and this was very successful. The only county high point that remains for me near Tahoe is Snow Valley Peak, high point of Carson City. I also tagged a few other county high points in the northern Sierras. As a result, I was able to extend my home glob into Nevada—more on that later.

I also had a multiday trip through Nevada, Idaho, and Oregon for this year’s total solar eclipse. The part of this trip that centered around the eclipse was wildly successful, as I had a wonderful view of the eclipse from the high point of Gem County, Idaho. However, I didn’t plan the second half of the trip as well as I should have. Poor weather and a lack of adequate research led to failure on Hat Mountain, high point of Lassen County, and no attempt on Eagle Peak, high point of Modoc County. In the future, I’ll do a better job of checking the weather and planning for an entire trip, although a lack of eclipse focus should help here too—I paid almost exclusive attention to making sure I’d have a clear spot to view it.

Despite the problems with this trip, I was able to extend my home glob into Oregon by ascending Crane Mountain (and Mount Rose, a couple weeks later), and added a significant amount of glob area in Oregon by ascending Granite Peak. I now stand at 48 county high points, with 39 (across three states and 86,392 square miles) connected.

So what comes next? I’m almost out of county high points that I can hike without sleeping anywhere but my own bed, so my next targets (outside of Los Prohibidos) will likely be weekend trips, with the possibility of a longer trip or two thrown in. My current priorities, in no real order:

  • I was hoping to ascend San Gorgonio Mountain, the highest point in Southern California, this summer, but after an exhausting Sunday combining San Jacinto Peak and the drive home I decided that quidditch weekends and highpointing weekends should be separate. I should be able to do this next summer, globbing both San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. (Santiago Peak would also be nice if I have time.)
  • With better planning and fewer fires, the Hat/Eagle combo in far northeastern California should be a fun weekend. It would be cool to find a route up Hat that doesn’t involve the annoying descent to Lost Lake, but I can deal with that if it’s drier and I’m not worried about thunderstorms.
  • The rest of the northern tier of California is also on my high-priority list, subject to feasibility. Mt. Eddy (ultra!) is the obvious pick. Salmon Mountain and Bear Mountain would be obvious, but last I heard the road to Bear Mountain is impassible from last winter’s storms. Hopefully that will be repaired sooner rather than later.
  • As I mentioned above, Snow Valley Peak is the last county high point I haven’t ascended near Tahoe, and it’s also one of the last doable in a (very long) day from home.
  • I want to start seriously pushing towards a Nevada completion. Nevada’s easier to complete than California, due to a lack of access issues, fewer counties overall, and no apex high points. I don’t expect to complete Nevada next year but I’d like to make some headway.
  • Similarly, I’d like to extend my home glob into Idaho and connect the three counties I already have there. Unfortunately Humboldt County doesn’t have adjacency with Idaho, so that means—in addition to Cinnabar Mountain—either BM Stevenson, a notorious tire-killer, or Ruby Dome, which is reportedly both quite fun and the hardest county high point in Nevada. Again, I don’t really expect to glob Idaho next year, but 2019 maybe?
  • And finally, some inroads into the High Sierra. White Mountain Peak (14er!) would be the obvious starting point, I think. (Although White Mountain Peak isn’t actually in the High Sierra, but the nearby White Mountains.)

In the mean time, there are plenty of Bay Area peaks to climb this winter. That is, if the worst fire season anyone can remember ever ends.

Pictures from this summer’s highpointing adventures can be found on my Facebook.

 

Early Returns

Courtesy of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location…

New Hampshire (4 EV)
Still
Voting
President
Barack Obama (DEM)
65.1%
28
Mitt Romney (GOP) 32.6%
14
1% reporting
[NH-1] Manchester
Still
Voting
Carol Shea-Porter (DEM) 69.7%
23
Representative
Frank Guinta (GOP)
27.3%
9
1% reporting
[NH-2] Nashua and Concord
Still
Voting
Representative
Charles Bass (GOP)
60.0%
6
Ann McLane Kuster (DEM) 30.0%
3
1% reporting
Governor of New Hampshire
Still
Voting
Maggie Hassan (DEM) 58.1%
25
Ovide Lamontagne (GOP) 37.2%
16
1% reporting

Restating the Projection Policy

It’s time for the biennial restatement of the site’s official Election Projection policy, which is printed in full over the fold.

This year, the runoff clause makes things a little weird. Usually, I wouldn’t project a single House race before 6 PM Eastern Time on Election Day. However, the new California top-two voting system means that there are seven House seats for which partisan control is already decided. Both remaining eligible candidates in those House seats belong to the same party, and votes for any other candidates—write-ins included—will simply be ignored.

Therefore, victory is guaranteed for a certain party in the following races:

  • CA-08 (High Desert): GOP Hold
  • CA-15 (Heyward and Livermore): DEM Hold
  • CA-30 (West San Fernando Valley): DEM Hold
  • CA-31 (San Bernardino): GOP Hold
  • CA-35 (Ontario): DEM Hold
  • CA-40 (Los Angeles, East, and Downey): DEM Hold
  • CA-43 (Los Angeles, South): DEM Hold

Or in graphical form:

113th House Projection :: DEM 5, GOP 2

Of course, I won’t have an actual winner in any of these races until Election Night, so check back then!

UPDATE [13-Oct-2017]: The “over the fold” part of this post seems to have been lost to the sands of time. Sorry.

Roll Call of the States: DNC 2012

The name of President Barack Obama, of Illinois, was placed in nomination by Bill Clinton of New York and seconded viva voce.

The roll call of the states for the Democratic nomination for President proceeded as follows:

Delegation Obama
Alabama 69
Alaska 24
American Samoa 10
Arizona 77
Arkansas 55
California 609
Colorado 82
Connecticut 88
Delaware 33
Democrats Abroad 18½
District of Columbia 45
Florida 296
Georgia 121
Guam 12
Hawaii 35
Idaho 31
Illinois 196
Indiana 101
Iowa 62
Kansas 51
Kentucky 72
Louisiana 65
Maine 35
Maryland 124
Massachusetts 128
Michigan 203
Minnesota 107
Mississippi yields
Ohio 188
Mississippi 45
Missouri 99
Montana 30
Nebraska 43
New Hampshire 35
Nevada 43
New Jersey 172
New Mexico 48
New York 384
North Carolina 152
North Dakota 25
Oklahoma 49
Oregon 84
Pennsylvania 242
Puerto Rico 66
Rhode Island 35
South Carolina 62
South Dakota 29
Tennessee 90
Texas 282
Utah 32
Vermont 27
Virgin Islands 12
Virginia 118
Washington 114
West Virginia 44
Wisconsin 103
Wyoming 22
Totals 5415½
Obama
2776 delegate votes needed to nominate

Ohio put Obama over the top.

By voice vote, the nomination of Barack Obama was then made unanimous.