Election Day 2017

I don’t have a ballot today, but these are the biggest races I’m watching.

Race Projection
Maine Question 2
Medicaid expansion
New Jersey Governor DEM Gain. Murphy elected.
New York, NY Mayor DEM Hold. DeBlasio re-elected.
Utah Congressional District 3
GOP Hold. Curtis elected.
Virginia Governor DEM Hold. Northam elected.
Washington Senate, District 45
Kirkland, Redmond, & Sammamish
DEM Gain. Dhingra elected.

The Washington legislative seat is principally important because gaining it also gives Democrats control of the Washington Senate (and full control of the Washington state government).

I’m also going to try to keep an eye on Virginia’s lieutenant governor and attorney general races, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections, and the aggregate change in the Virginia House of Delegates, as well as any other interesting state or local results that come in.

Vacancy: Mount Lebanon and Greensburg, PA

There exists a vacancy in the 18th Congressional district of Pennsylvania (Mount Lebanon and Greensburg), vice Timothy Francis Murphy, resigned.

The Eighteenth District is seen as a probable Republican hold. It re-elected Murphy without opposition in 2016; in 2012, Murphy was re-elected with 64% of the vote. The district gave Donald Trump a 58.1%-35.1% margin in 2016 and Mitt Romney a 57.9%-41.0% margin in 2012. This area last sent a Democrat (Frank Mascara) to Congress in 2000, prior to the 2002 redistricting that made the seat significantly more Republican and elected Murphy.

The partisan composition of the House of Representatives is now 239 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with two vacancies. A date for the special election has not yet been set.