From Arizona’s 9th Congressional District:
| Tempe, AZ | ||
|---|---|---|
| DEM Hold |
Kyrsten Sinema (DEM) | 48.2% 100,486 |
| Vernon Parker (GOP) | 45.4% 94,697 |
|
| 100% reporting | ||
Sinema will be the first openly bisexual member of Congress.
Month: November 2012
General Election 2012
UPDATE [2:43 PST]: Calling it a night. There are one Senate seat (MT) and 11 House seats (AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-9, CA-7, CA-26, CA-33, CA-41, CA-47, CA-52, MI-1, NC-7) that are still too close to call. If the current leaders in all of those races end up winning, Democrats will have gained 2 seats in the Senate and 6 seats in the House.
Early Returns
Courtesy of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location…
| New Hampshire (4 EV) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
President Barack Obama (DEM) |
65.1% 28 |
| Mitt Romney (GOP) | 32.6% 14 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
| [NH-1] Manchester | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
Carol Shea-Porter (DEM) | 69.7% 23 |
| Representative Frank Guinta (GOP) |
27.3% 9 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
| [NH-2] Nashua and Concord | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
Representative Charles Bass (GOP) |
60.0% 6 |
| Ann McLane Kuster (DEM) | 30.0% 3 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
| Governor of New Hampshire | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
Maggie Hassan (DEM) | 58.1% 25 |
| Ovide Lamontagne (GOP) | 37.2% 16 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
Restating the Projection Policy
It’s time for the biennial restatement of the site’s official Election Projection policy, which is printed in full over the fold.
This year, the runoff clause makes things a little weird. Usually, I wouldn’t project a single House race before 6 PM Eastern Time on Election Day. However, the new California top-two voting system means that there are seven House seats for which partisan control is already decided. Both remaining eligible candidates in those House seats belong to the same party, and votes for any other candidates—write-ins included—will simply be ignored.
Therefore, victory is guaranteed for a certain party in the following races:
- CA-08 (High Desert): GOP Hold
- CA-15 (Heyward and Livermore): DEM Hold
- CA-30 (West San Fernando Valley): DEM Hold
- CA-31 (San Bernardino): GOP Hold
- CA-35 (Ontario): DEM Hold
- CA-40 (Los Angeles, East, and Downey): DEM Hold
- CA-43 (Los Angeles, South): DEM Hold
Or in graphical form:
Of course, I won’t have an actual winner in any of these races until Election Night, so check back then!
UPDATE [13-Oct-2017]: The “over the fold” part of this post seems to have been lost to the sands of time. Sorry.
Acrophilia 